Monday, September 06, 2010

Copa Bicentenario Predictions

Block A - September 7 @ Arena Mexico

Felino & Rey Bucanero: These guys would seemingly have to be ruled out right away since the finals are taking place on September 17th and it is heavily rumored that show will have some sort of hair match involving at least one if not both of these men. CMLL never has wrestlers work twice on shows unless in the case of an emergency substitution so I'd rank these guys chances of winning as LOW.

Terrible & Texano: A year ago they were the most pushed tag team in the entire company. 2010 has not been so nice to them and neither guy has really had any sort of memorable program. They were even MIA from the Anniversary Show a few days ago. This all works together to actually seemingly give them an edge to move on here. Of course you have to balance that with the fact they have no logical opponents to meet in the finals. I'd give them a MEDIUM chance of winning.

Héctor Garza & Mr. Águila: They are the current CMLL Tag Team Champions so logically they should have the best chance of winning. But once again... much like Bucanero/Felino - these two are rumored to be involved in some sort of hair match on September 17th. And if they aren't in a hair match they might be defending their titles. So these two are the wildcards. Not to mention they have a huge edge if Tirantes is reffing. Can't bet against them and thus they have a HIGH chance of winning.

Atlantis & Último Guerrero: Clear favorites since they too have been largely shut out when it comes to important wins. Not to mention CMLL seems to be heavily hyping this tournament and Atlantis/Ultimo are two big enough names to end up in the finals. Another team with a HIGH chance of winning.

Jushin Lyger & Okumura: This team is a toughie b/c even though Okumura is at the bottom of the totem pole - Lyger is near the top. But Lyger's run in Mexico is almost at an end. Will he even still be around on the 17th? Nobody seems to know. CMLL generally protects Lyger so just using him to get squashed in 2 minutes in the first round doesn't seem like an option. Still... I just can't see these guys making much of an impact so I'll give them a LOW chance of winning.

Averno & Mephisto: Long-time team that has had much success. They even technically won the cage match a few days ago by escaping first. They'd make perfect opponents in the finals for any of the tecnico teams. Gotta give them a HIGH chance of winning.

Dragón Rojo Jr. & Sangre Azteca: These guys are not a tag team. They are part of a trios. Thus I can't really consider them going far here. They have no momentum going into the tournament and I can't see CMLL counting on them to co-headline the major September 17th show. They're right near the bottom with a LOW chance of winning.

Mr. Niebla & Volador Jr.: These guys winning seems to be tied to who wins Block B since they make perfect opponents for Mistico & Sombra. Would CMLL have them win and thus guarantee which team makes it out of Friday's tournament? It's possible. CMLL isn't against doing the obvious if it means drawing well (which is a good thing). Of course can you count on Niebla showing up not only on Tuesday but also 10 days later? Just based on recent angles I'd have to give them a HIGH chance of winning.


Round 1:

Averno/Mephisto over Dragon Rojo Jr./Sangre Azteca
Atlantis/Ultimo Guerrero over Terrible/Texano
Hector Garza/Mr. Aguila over Felino/Rey Bucanero
Mr. Niebla/Volador Jr. over Lyger/Okumura


Averno/Mephisto over Atlantis/Ultimo Guerrero
Hector Garza/Mr. Aguila over Mr. Niebla/Volador Jr.


Averno/Mephisto over Hector Garza/Mr. Aguila

I think the most important thing in the minds of CMLL bookers will be to protect their champions so Garza/Aguila will make the finals. However, I also think they will do so with lots of help from Tirantes along the way. Naturally in the finals things will backfire and Averno/Mephisto will come out on top to advance to the September 17th finals.

Block B - September 10 @ Arena Mexico

The lack of many strong tecnicos makes this block easier to call than the rudos block...

Blue Panther & Máscara Dorada: Probably the second ranked team after Mistico/Sombra. Dorada already has one tag team tournament under his belt this year but that was with a stronger partner (Atlantis). Panther has been in nowhereland this year and primarily seems more concerned with trying to elevate wrestlers he faces more than anything else. I'm still going to give them a HIGH chance of winning just based on the fact they are one of two teams capable of heading on the 17th.

Hijo del Fantasma & Stuka Jr.: The difference in brackets is clearly evident with a team like this who would be ranked below all but one of the rudo teams. These guys are both promising rising stars but have very little experience teaming and seem like they were just thrown together b/c they have the same color scheme at times. That's not a good sign. LOW chance of winning.

La Sombra & Místico: No doubt about it - this is THE team of choice in this block. It's so obvious on paper that you have to expect some sort of upset but the only team I can see pulling off the upset would be Panther/Dorada. It'd be ridiculous to have someone beat Sombra clean after his performance on Friday and Mistico needs something to do on the 17th. You have to be pretty dumb to bet against them but at the same time you could be a genius for betting against them. HIGH chance of winning and even HIGHER if Niebla/Volador win their bracket on Tuesday.

Sagrado & Toscano: Oh yes, it does get lower than this! Sagrado has had a rough couple of weeks complete with botching his moonsault finisher on more than one occasion and blowing three consecutive spots on Cadena Tres which led to the entire arena boo'ing him loudly. He'll be looking to get back on track here but... his partner is Toscano. So... yeah. Saying they have a LOW chance of winning would give them too much hope.

Brazo de Plata & Máximo: As if Porky could even wrestle three matches in one night even if they are 2 minutes each! These guys will bring the comedy and hopefully get it all out of their system in the first round match. They have a LOWER chance of winning than Sagrado/Toscano.

Rayo de Jalisco Jr. & Valiente: A friend on twitter asked me "why are these two teaming?". Another friend on twitter answered "they both do the hop!" So there you have it. Not exactly the neccessary credentials to win a tag tournament and headline on the 17th, huh? Don't see them jobbing out in the first round but still giving them a LOW chance of winning.

Rush & Strongman: Dr. Lucha's dream team! Unfortunately for Dr. Lucha this doesn't appear to be a tournament they are destined to win as I can't see either guy being put over the Mistico/Sombra team or even the Shocker/La Mascara team. I feel bad for whoever comes across these guys in the first round though. LOW chance of winning, HIGH chance of injuring someone.

La Máscara & Shocker: The third highest ranked team in the tournament and honestly you could argue with me and convince me to change them to the second highest ranked team before Panther/Dorada if you tried hard enough. Much like Niebla, Shocker is tough to rely on to show up on Friday, let alone next Friday as well. La Mascara is always protected by the company though and even went to the finals in the first tag team tournament of the year. Can't underrate these guys b/c they match up well with numerous rudo teams. If Niebla/Volador win you can't rule out an upset in this block with these guys going over Mistico/Sombra b/c the matchup works -> Shocker vs Niebla & La Mascara vs Volador. Thus they have to given HIGH chances of winning.


Round 1:

Blue Panther/Mascara Dorada over Rayo De Jalisco Jr./Valiente
Strongman/Rush over Brazo De Plata/Maximo
Shocker/La Mascara over Sagrado/Toscano
Mistico/Sombra over Hijo Del Fantasma/Stuka Jr.


Blue Panther/Mascara Dorada over Strongman/Rush
Mistico/Sombra over Shocker/La Mascara


Mistico/Sombra over Blue Panther/Mascara Dorada

I refuse to stray from the obvious pick. Mistico/Sombra are clear favorites going in and I think they'll come out on top and co-headline on the 17th against Averno and Mephisto in what should be a spectacular match. The main event on the 17th is likely to involve lots of shenanigans w/ interference and referee bullshit so this match will counteract that and give the fans something they can really enjoy.

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