CMLL Anniversary Show Predictions
The undercard really doesn't matter so let's breeze through it as quick as possible...
1) Dark Angel, Luna Mágica, Marcela vs Amapola, Princesa Blanca, Princesa Sujei
I've always been in favor of having the tecnicos win to start any major show. Let's hope they at least don't have Luna Magica get the winning pinfall. Speaking of Luna Magica... did I read correctly that she claims she is only 50% since his return? Would a Luna Magica at 100% = either of her partners at 10%? My math sucks.
2) Ángel de Oro, Delta, Stuka Jr. vs Arkángel de la Muerte, Pólvora, Skándalo
Poor Stuka. He's been around almost 8 years now and is teaming with two guys who combined haven't been around for even 4 years and have already passed him on the card. This will probably go quick and be your standard two fall match with the tecs winning by DQ. All I'm hoping for out of this is Delta managing to not botch any spots or hurt any of his opponents. Clearly I'm not holding my breath on either.
3) Blue Panther, La Máscara, Máscara Dorada vs Dragón Rojo Jr., Misterioso II, Sangre Azteca
The match of the night candidate. Eagerly looking forward to seeing what new spot Mascara Dorada busts out. For shits and giggles they should put the rudos over and have them issue another challenge for the trios titles they can never seem to actually win. Or hey - maybet his they can challenge for the CMLL Trios Titles! 2/3 champs are right there! BTW, after reading the Tuesday lineup I'm surprised to see how little CMLL thinks of Misterioso. Not even in the top 16 rudos? (17 if you count Negro too.)
4) Felino, Negro Casas, Rey Bucanero vs Charly Manson, Héctor Garza, Mr. Águila
It'll be interesting to see what happens here. I assumed this would set up a tag title match for 9/10 and it still might but maybe they'll rush things and do a hair match on 9/10? The tecnico Torneo Cibernetico is being done so there will be a shortage of (read: ZERO) tecnicos to use. They could hold off until 9/17 but that would take 5 of the 6 out of the running to win Tuesday's tournament. I'll go with the K.I.S.S. rule for this. Tirantes will help the rudos win and this will set up a tag title match for 9/10 w/ Felino/Casas against Aguila/Garza.
5) CAGE MATCH!
Let's break it down individually...
Atlantis
CHANCE OF LOSING: Low.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Medium.
PREDICTION: His main feud is with Rayo De Jalisco Jr. even though CMLL has tried to trick us all lately by having him rip masks with Olimpico and Histeria. He's really the odd man out in this match and I could easily see him escaping first and being the real winner as Cesar likes to claim.
Jushin Lyger
CHANCE OF LOSING: Low.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Low.
PREDICTION: A few months ago I was actually thinking he would lose his mask on this show. Of course that was when the idea was to do something with him and Negro Casas or Mistico. Since then he's done nothing except feud with Sombra. I can't see Lyger dropping his mask in a big multi-man cage match when there's way more value in a singles match where he handpicks the person to beat him clean and take his hood. At the same time I can't see him being the winner of a mask here b/c he just won the Universal Championship which seems to be his reward for spending all this time in Mexico. He'll escape somewhere in the middle.
Último Guerrero
CHANCE OF LOSING: Low.
CHANCE OF WINNING: High.
PREDICTION: Much like Atlantis he also doesn't fit in very well but he at least belongs more just based on representing CMLL against the Invaders which has been his thing since day #1 of the Invaders showing up. He's clearly not losing here so he might leave early... ooooooooooooooooooooooooor he could be the CMLL rudo who hangs in until the end and takes the mask of one of the Invaders. If that's the direction CMLL goes in it's basically a toss-up between him, Averno and Mephisto. Ultimo has the edge b/c he hasn't won anything of note this year.
Averno
CHANCE OF LOSING: Low.
CHANCE OF WINNING: High.
PREDICTION: What I said about Ultimo Guerrero applies to Averno as well. His advantage is not only has he not won anything this year but he still doesn't have any spectacular wins under his belt that would make his mask more valuable down the road. Could this be his night to increase his future value?
Mephisto
CHANCE OF LOSING: Low.
CHANCE OF WINNING: High.
PREDICTION: See: Ultimo Guerrero and Averno. He's not as highly ranked as them but that's why he'd make a good option to be around at the end. It'd be surprising to see him given such a big win but at the same time if it came down to him vs Niebla or him vs Olimpico there might be a little doubt from certain fans who could easily see him dropping the hood for a big payday and the ultimate surprise. The fans would certainly buy it more than either Averno or Ultimo losing.
Mr. Niebla
CHANCE OF LOSING: Medium.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Low.
PREDICTION: I'm ruling him out for the win right away. He's either here to lose or escape early as to not distract from the non-comedy wrestlers. With his recent problems and sudden return to be included in the match it's pretty clear CMLL wants people to think he is losing. But is he? Would he return to CMLL just to be punished and lose his mask? Maybe. Out of all the people who could lose - his mask certainly has the highest value. Definitely someone to watch out for. Especially if Olimpico, Histeria, Psicosis and Efesto escape early on...
Histeria
CHANCE OF LOSING: High.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Low.
PREDICTION: No need to pull any punches here. Histeria is either going to be the loser or the decoy who survives until the final three and then leaves to set up the final two much like he did in July when Angel De Oro unmasked Fabian El Gitano much to Dorian Roldan's displeasure. If this weren't the Anniversary Show I'd throw some money down on Histeria losing but I just can't wrap my head around CMLL having a guy like Histeria be the big loser on their biggest show of the year. Forget about the payday going his way - just think about CMLL acknowledging that an ex-AAA wrestler turned indy guy is important enough to be the name that will be talked about for years when the Anniversary Show results are brought up. I just can't see it happening.
Psicosis
CHANCE OF LOSING: High.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Low.
PREDICTION: You know it was Psicosis who started this mess by getting into a feud with Mistico and forcing someone to realize that a singles match between those two was not appropriate for an Anniversary Show main event. Thanks Psicosis! What I said about Histeria applies here as well. My gut feeling is he'll escape somewhere early on which will clear the way for Mistico to escape soon after. I think eventually Psicosis' mask will belong to Mistico... just not tonight.
Místico
CHANCE OF LOSING: What's lower than zero?
CHANCE OF WINNING: High.
PREDICTION: You can never not bet against the top tecnico in the company ending the night with a mask in his hands. Mistico could easily end up unmasking one of his many rivals involved in this match - Niebla, Psicosis, Volador, Olimpico or Lyger. The only things working against him are CMLL may not care for the backlash of having Mistico win his second straight Anniversary Show main event and the booking has been more unpredictable than ever from CMLL this year so having Mistico win would be "too easy" so to speak. He could make a dramatic escape by diving off the cage onto Volador on the floor/ramp and that would probably accomplish just as much as winning a mask at the end. The only thing you can be sure of is to expect fireworks with him and Volador at some point.
La Sombra
CHANCE OF LOSING: Low.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Medium.
PREDICTION: Not a strong candidate to be anything other than an extra body. He already had a big mask win this year (Felino) and giving him another serves no purpose. He's also clearly not losing so he's in limbo. He may end up doing something with Volador inside the cage to build to a future match with them or he may just stick around to get his mask ripped and eventually escape dramatically somewhere in the middle. I'd bet on the latter. Remember - both he and Mistico are the only two tecnicos so one of them has to last until near the end.
El Alebrije
CHANCE OF LOSING: Medium.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Low.
PREDICTION: He could lose his mask at any point according to Dorian Roldan and yet he hasn't yet. He needs the mask for his gimmick. You can't do Alebrije w/o the crazy mask much like you can't do Cuije without the crazy mask. And if I'm not mistaken Cuije has also vowed to unmask if Alebrije loses. So that should make him a safe bet to escape safely. I'd pencil him in as escaping second right behind Atlantis.
Volador Jr.
CHANCE OF LOSING: Medium.
CHANCE OF WINNING: High.
PREDICTION: That's right... in the back of my mind I think if CMLL is going to shock us this year and have someone nobody suspects drop the mask - it might be Volador. It would take another big name to unmask him though. Truthfully... odds are he's keeping his mask and continuing his feud with Mistico. But I for one will be really worried if at around 11pm tomorrow the cage only has Mistico, Volador, Lyger and Ultimo Guerrero left inside...
Ephesto
CHANCE OF LOSING: High.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Low.
PREDICTION: DANGER! DANGER! DANGER! This is an old guy in a pointless gimmick who really has no reason to be in this match. CMLL clearly wants us to think Efesto is at the end of his line and someone much younger will be taking his mask. But who? Not Mistico or Sombra. Not his own partners Averno and Mephisto. Clearly not one of the Invaders. Which leaves Atlantis, Ultimo Guerrero, Volador Jr. and Mr. Niebla. Guerrero over Efesto? Sounds good to me. Would be a fitting conclusion for Efesto and a sentimental moment for Guerrero. That's definitely a result to keep in the back of your mind.
Olímpico
CHANCE OF LOSING: High.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Low.
PREDICTION: He's got a sick son who needs his medical bills paid, he's old and he'll never get a chance like this again. All signs point to Olimpico being a strong candidate to lose and that's exactly why I'm trying to come up with 10,000 solutions other than Olimpico losing! *L* He also used to be a favorite of Paco and desperately wanted to get back into CMLL earlier than just a couple of months ago. So one has to question why he was suddenly brought back and inserted into the main event picture.
So there's my analysis. And what do I think the result will actually be?
*drumroll*
Mephisto unmasks Olimpico.
I think Olimpico's deal to return was that he'd lose his mask when the company asked and I think they sped up the process when he fell back into their good graces. He needs the cash and this is the most value he'll get for his mask. It would serve the purpose of unmasking an Invader while at the same time not giving the big payday to a guy like Psicosis or Histeria. I chose Mephisto to win b/c he's the guy nobody would expect to win but at the same time nobody would be disappointed to see win. He's a hard working guy and would be cheered for by both the rudo fan and the tecnico fans who would just support the CMLL guy. It will increase value for Mephisto's mask down the road and it makes sense since these two basically started off together in CMLL.
Can't wait for the chat and hopefully to hear everyone else's picks before the show starts!
1) Dark Angel, Luna Mágica, Marcela vs Amapola, Princesa Blanca, Princesa Sujei
I've always been in favor of having the tecnicos win to start any major show. Let's hope they at least don't have Luna Magica get the winning pinfall. Speaking of Luna Magica... did I read correctly that she claims she is only 50% since his return? Would a Luna Magica at 100% = either of her partners at 10%? My math sucks.
2) Ángel de Oro, Delta, Stuka Jr. vs Arkángel de la Muerte, Pólvora, Skándalo
Poor Stuka. He's been around almost 8 years now and is teaming with two guys who combined haven't been around for even 4 years and have already passed him on the card. This will probably go quick and be your standard two fall match with the tecs winning by DQ. All I'm hoping for out of this is Delta managing to not botch any spots or hurt any of his opponents. Clearly I'm not holding my breath on either.
3) Blue Panther, La Máscara, Máscara Dorada vs Dragón Rojo Jr., Misterioso II, Sangre Azteca
The match of the night candidate. Eagerly looking forward to seeing what new spot Mascara Dorada busts out. For shits and giggles they should put the rudos over and have them issue another challenge for the trios titles they can never seem to actually win. Or hey - maybet his they can challenge for the CMLL Trios Titles! 2/3 champs are right there! BTW, after reading the Tuesday lineup I'm surprised to see how little CMLL thinks of Misterioso. Not even in the top 16 rudos? (17 if you count Negro too.)
4) Felino, Negro Casas, Rey Bucanero vs Charly Manson, Héctor Garza, Mr. Águila
It'll be interesting to see what happens here. I assumed this would set up a tag title match for 9/10 and it still might but maybe they'll rush things and do a hair match on 9/10? The tecnico Torneo Cibernetico is being done so there will be a shortage of (read: ZERO) tecnicos to use. They could hold off until 9/17 but that would take 5 of the 6 out of the running to win Tuesday's tournament. I'll go with the K.I.S.S. rule for this. Tirantes will help the rudos win and this will set up a tag title match for 9/10 w/ Felino/Casas against Aguila/Garza.
5) CAGE MATCH!
Let's break it down individually...
Atlantis
CHANCE OF LOSING: Low.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Medium.
PREDICTION: His main feud is with Rayo De Jalisco Jr. even though CMLL has tried to trick us all lately by having him rip masks with Olimpico and Histeria. He's really the odd man out in this match and I could easily see him escaping first and being the real winner as Cesar likes to claim.
Jushin Lyger
CHANCE OF LOSING: Low.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Low.
PREDICTION: A few months ago I was actually thinking he would lose his mask on this show. Of course that was when the idea was to do something with him and Negro Casas or Mistico. Since then he's done nothing except feud with Sombra. I can't see Lyger dropping his mask in a big multi-man cage match when there's way more value in a singles match where he handpicks the person to beat him clean and take his hood. At the same time I can't see him being the winner of a mask here b/c he just won the Universal Championship which seems to be his reward for spending all this time in Mexico. He'll escape somewhere in the middle.
Último Guerrero
CHANCE OF LOSING: Low.
CHANCE OF WINNING: High.
PREDICTION: Much like Atlantis he also doesn't fit in very well but he at least belongs more just based on representing CMLL against the Invaders which has been his thing since day #1 of the Invaders showing up. He's clearly not losing here so he might leave early... ooooooooooooooooooooooooor he could be the CMLL rudo who hangs in until the end and takes the mask of one of the Invaders. If that's the direction CMLL goes in it's basically a toss-up between him, Averno and Mephisto. Ultimo has the edge b/c he hasn't won anything of note this year.
Averno
CHANCE OF LOSING: Low.
CHANCE OF WINNING: High.
PREDICTION: What I said about Ultimo Guerrero applies to Averno as well. His advantage is not only has he not won anything this year but he still doesn't have any spectacular wins under his belt that would make his mask more valuable down the road. Could this be his night to increase his future value?
Mephisto
CHANCE OF LOSING: Low.
CHANCE OF WINNING: High.
PREDICTION: See: Ultimo Guerrero and Averno. He's not as highly ranked as them but that's why he'd make a good option to be around at the end. It'd be surprising to see him given such a big win but at the same time if it came down to him vs Niebla or him vs Olimpico there might be a little doubt from certain fans who could easily see him dropping the hood for a big payday and the ultimate surprise. The fans would certainly buy it more than either Averno or Ultimo losing.
Mr. Niebla
CHANCE OF LOSING: Medium.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Low.
PREDICTION: I'm ruling him out for the win right away. He's either here to lose or escape early as to not distract from the non-comedy wrestlers. With his recent problems and sudden return to be included in the match it's pretty clear CMLL wants people to think he is losing. But is he? Would he return to CMLL just to be punished and lose his mask? Maybe. Out of all the people who could lose - his mask certainly has the highest value. Definitely someone to watch out for. Especially if Olimpico, Histeria, Psicosis and Efesto escape early on...
Histeria
CHANCE OF LOSING: High.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Low.
PREDICTION: No need to pull any punches here. Histeria is either going to be the loser or the decoy who survives until the final three and then leaves to set up the final two much like he did in July when Angel De Oro unmasked Fabian El Gitano much to Dorian Roldan's displeasure. If this weren't the Anniversary Show I'd throw some money down on Histeria losing but I just can't wrap my head around CMLL having a guy like Histeria be the big loser on their biggest show of the year. Forget about the payday going his way - just think about CMLL acknowledging that an ex-AAA wrestler turned indy guy is important enough to be the name that will be talked about for years when the Anniversary Show results are brought up. I just can't see it happening.
Psicosis
CHANCE OF LOSING: High.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Low.
PREDICTION: You know it was Psicosis who started this mess by getting into a feud with Mistico and forcing someone to realize that a singles match between those two was not appropriate for an Anniversary Show main event. Thanks Psicosis! What I said about Histeria applies here as well. My gut feeling is he'll escape somewhere early on which will clear the way for Mistico to escape soon after. I think eventually Psicosis' mask will belong to Mistico... just not tonight.
Místico
CHANCE OF LOSING: What's lower than zero?
CHANCE OF WINNING: High.
PREDICTION: You can never not bet against the top tecnico in the company ending the night with a mask in his hands. Mistico could easily end up unmasking one of his many rivals involved in this match - Niebla, Psicosis, Volador, Olimpico or Lyger. The only things working against him are CMLL may not care for the backlash of having Mistico win his second straight Anniversary Show main event and the booking has been more unpredictable than ever from CMLL this year so having Mistico win would be "too easy" so to speak. He could make a dramatic escape by diving off the cage onto Volador on the floor/ramp and that would probably accomplish just as much as winning a mask at the end. The only thing you can be sure of is to expect fireworks with him and Volador at some point.
La Sombra
CHANCE OF LOSING: Low.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Medium.
PREDICTION: Not a strong candidate to be anything other than an extra body. He already had a big mask win this year (Felino) and giving him another serves no purpose. He's also clearly not losing so he's in limbo. He may end up doing something with Volador inside the cage to build to a future match with them or he may just stick around to get his mask ripped and eventually escape dramatically somewhere in the middle. I'd bet on the latter. Remember - both he and Mistico are the only two tecnicos so one of them has to last until near the end.
El Alebrije
CHANCE OF LOSING: Medium.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Low.
PREDICTION: He could lose his mask at any point according to Dorian Roldan and yet he hasn't yet. He needs the mask for his gimmick. You can't do Alebrije w/o the crazy mask much like you can't do Cuije without the crazy mask. And if I'm not mistaken Cuije has also vowed to unmask if Alebrije loses. So that should make him a safe bet to escape safely. I'd pencil him in as escaping second right behind Atlantis.
Volador Jr.
CHANCE OF LOSING: Medium.
CHANCE OF WINNING: High.
PREDICTION: That's right... in the back of my mind I think if CMLL is going to shock us this year and have someone nobody suspects drop the mask - it might be Volador. It would take another big name to unmask him though. Truthfully... odds are he's keeping his mask and continuing his feud with Mistico. But I for one will be really worried if at around 11pm tomorrow the cage only has Mistico, Volador, Lyger and Ultimo Guerrero left inside...
Ephesto
CHANCE OF LOSING: High.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Low.
PREDICTION: DANGER! DANGER! DANGER! This is an old guy in a pointless gimmick who really has no reason to be in this match. CMLL clearly wants us to think Efesto is at the end of his line and someone much younger will be taking his mask. But who? Not Mistico or Sombra. Not his own partners Averno and Mephisto. Clearly not one of the Invaders. Which leaves Atlantis, Ultimo Guerrero, Volador Jr. and Mr. Niebla. Guerrero over Efesto? Sounds good to me. Would be a fitting conclusion for Efesto and a sentimental moment for Guerrero. That's definitely a result to keep in the back of your mind.
Olímpico
CHANCE OF LOSING: High.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Low.
PREDICTION: He's got a sick son who needs his medical bills paid, he's old and he'll never get a chance like this again. All signs point to Olimpico being a strong candidate to lose and that's exactly why I'm trying to come up with 10,000 solutions other than Olimpico losing! *L* He also used to be a favorite of Paco and desperately wanted to get back into CMLL earlier than just a couple of months ago. So one has to question why he was suddenly brought back and inserted into the main event picture.
So there's my analysis. And what do I think the result will actually be?
*drumroll*
Mephisto unmasks Olimpico.
I think Olimpico's deal to return was that he'd lose his mask when the company asked and I think they sped up the process when he fell back into their good graces. He needs the cash and this is the most value he'll get for his mask. It would serve the purpose of unmasking an Invader while at the same time not giving the big payday to a guy like Psicosis or Histeria. I chose Mephisto to win b/c he's the guy nobody would expect to win but at the same time nobody would be disappointed to see win. He's a hard working guy and would be cheered for by both the rudo fan and the tecnico fans who would just support the CMLL guy. It will increase value for Mephisto's mask down the road and it makes sense since these two basically started off together in CMLL.
Can't wait for the chat and hopefully to hear everyone else's picks before the show starts!
posted by Rob at 8:00 AM
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